Major U.S. policy shifts are having a significant impact on both the U.S. and the global economy, according to a recent analysis by Frost & Sullivan. The analysis reveals that the prolonged U.S.-China trade war continues to disrupt the world economy and is viewed as one of the biggest risks to global economic growth. However, the potential ratification of the USMCA trade deal stands to benefit the U.S. automotive industry, given the tightened rules of origin requirements and the high wage clause. Negotiations for a post-Brexit U.S.-UK trade deal appear to be a top priority for both countries, potentially entailing duty-free trade in industrial goods.
The report, US Economy and Policy, Forecast to 2022, has been designed to better prepare decision-makers for multiple scenarios that could unfold in light of major recent U.S. trade policy upheavals, the upcoming presidential election, changing world dynamics, and other events.
“The U.S. GDP growth outlook is, to a large extent, contingent on the trade wars outlook. With trade wars most likely to intensify again this year, GDP growth is expected to slip from 2.9% in 2018 to 1.7% or less in 2019 and 1.4% or less in 2020,” said Neha Anna Thomas, Senior Economist, Frost & Sullivan. “The outlook thereafter is contingent on the policy direction of the president, after the 2020 elections.”
Key issues addressed in the analysis include:
- U.S. 2020 Election and Policy Outlook: Policy expectations for Trump’s potential second term and other key 2020 presidential candidates.
- Trade Outlook: A look at the impact of trade war scenarios, USMCA trade ratification, and a potential U.S.-UK post-Brexit deal.
- Labor Market Outlook: An examination of which professions will see the most growth through 2026, as well as U.S. unemployment rate analysis.
- U.S. GDP Growth Outlook: Expectations for GDP growth through 2020.
- Dollar Outlook: Assessment of the scenarios of dollar devaluation, depreciation, and appreciation.
US Economy and Policy, Forecast to 2022 is part of Frost & Sullivan’s global Emerging Market Innovation Growth Partnership Service program.